THE AUTUMN LETTER The cure for anything is salt water – sweat. tears or the sea.” -- Karen Blixen Economic Perspective As neighbors decorate yards for Halloween, our thoughts turn to Thanksgiving, Christmas and the holiday season. This Christmas shopping season is likely to run into the buzzsaw … [Read more...]

THE SUMMER LETTER I have always imagined Paradise as a kind of library.” -- Jorge Luis Borges (1899–1986) Economic Perspective Although we officially emerged from recession in April 2020 [sic] according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the economic recovery only went into hyperdrive … [Read more...]

THE SPRING LETTER We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.” -- Oscar Wilde Market Thoughts Sometimes, with the stock market’s gyrations you can hear Taps echoing at the bottom, but they seldom ring a bell at the top. Some phenomena, redolent of the madness of crowds, … [Read more...]

THE WINTER LETTER If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” -- Francis Bacon There are more things in heaven and earth…than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” -- Shakespeare, Hamlet Investment … [Read more...]

THE SPRING LETTER Panic is not an investment strategy.”   Market Thoughts The year opened with a euphoric rush. Many stock market participants (one hesitates to call them investors), who had missed out on the startling gains in 2019, adopted a fear of missing out mentality. Complacency … [Read more...]

THE WINTER LETTER If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” - Francis Bacon Economic Perspective “If what you’re selling is bullshit, then you need a shovel, and if what you’re selling is truth … [Read more...]

THE AUTUMN LETTER To live within limits, to want one thing, or a very few things; Very much and love them dearly, cling to them, survey them From every angle, become one with them ---that is what makes The poet, the artist, the human being.” - Goethe Economic Perspective Forecasters of a … [Read more...]

THE SPRING LETTER He turned his back on his native borders And flew off to a far-away land; Alongside the merry ghost of freedom” - Alexander Pushkin, "Captive of the Caucasus" (1822) Economic Perspective The US economy encountered twin self-inflicted tremors in the latest quarter: trade … [Read more...]

THE WINTER LETTER When the capital development of a country becomes a byproduct of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.” - John Maynard Keynes Economic Perspective Substantial corporate tax cuts sparked vigorous business expansion and corporate income gains in 2018. … [Read more...]

THE AUTUMN LETTER The useful historians are not those who give general descriptions of facts and explain them by reference to general conditions, but those who go into the greatest detail and reveal the particular cause of each event.” - Giambattista Vico, Italian philosopher of … [Read more...]